Bracketology 65

Final Final Bracket

2010-03-14T15:20:00.000-04:00

1. Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia
2. Duke, Ohio State, Kansas State, Georgetown
3. Villanova, Temple, Purdue, Pittsburgh
4. Baylor, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Tennessee
5. Maryland, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M
6. Butler, Richmond, Xavier, BYU
7. Texas, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Marquette
8. Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State
9. Saint Mary's, San Diego State, UNLV, Missouri
10. Louisville, California, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
11. Old Dominion, Washington, UTEP, Utah State
12. Minnesota, Mississippi St., Siena, Cornell,
13. New Mexico State, Murray State, Oaklahd, Wofford
14. Houston, Ohio, Montana, Sam Houston State
15. UC Santa Barbara, Morgan State, North Texas, Vermont
16. Robert Morris, East Tennessee State, Winthrop, Lehigh, Arkansas Pine Bluff

Last Bracket

2010-03-14T11:52:00.000-04:00

I won't get a chance to update a bracket later in the day, so here is my last bracket. I'm banking on the fact that Kentucky takes the SEC title, or else Mississippi State would enter the field obviously, I just won't get a chance to update it. If Mississippi State wins, I would remove Florida from my bracket and insert Mississippi State. Everything else is set in stone. Temple and Richmond might move, but my bracket is based on Temple probably winning. Here it is:

1. Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia
2. Duke, Ohio State, Kansas State, Georgetown
3. Villanova, Temple, Purdue, Pittsburgh
4. Baylor, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Tennessee
5. Maryland, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M
6. Butler, Richmond, Xavier, BYU
7. Texas, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Marquette
8. Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State
9. Saint Mary's, San Diego State, UNLV, Missouri
10. Louisville, California, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
11. Old Dominion, Washington, UTEP, Utah State
12. Minnesota, Florida, Siena, Cornell,
13. New Mexico State, Murray State, Oaklahd, Wofford
14. Houston, Ohio, Montana, Sam Houston State
15. UC Santa Barbara, Morgan State, North Texas, Vermont
16. Robert Morris, East Tennessee State, Winthrop, Lehigh, Arkansas Pine Bluff

Field of 65 Going into the Weekend

2010-03-13T12:30:00.001-05:00

I haven't been able to get up a bracket in the past few days because a lot of school work, but I have been keeping my eye on each and every single game these past few days, knowing I would be able to get a bracket up this morning.

How about these past few days? Two nights ago, on Thursday, the Big East top teams were rampaged, and all the teams playing on the bubble seemed to slip up. Then yesterday, the fortunes turned the other way for the bubble teams, where San Diego State, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Washington on advanced in their respective tournaments. Yesterday also had it's share of top teams go down as Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Maryland were all bounced early.

Here's my outlook on things going into this weekend:

1. Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
2. West Virginia, Purdue, Kansas State, Ohio State
3. Georgetown, Villanova, New Mexico, Baylor
4. Pittsburgh, Temple, Tennessee, Wisconsin
5. Vanderbilt, Maryland, Michigan State, Butler
6. Texas A&M, Xavier, BYU, Texas
7. Richmond, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame
8. California, Northern Iowa, UNLV, Marquette,
9. Saint Mary's, Clemson, Florida State, Missouri
10. Wake Forest, Louisville, Old Dominion, UTEP
11. Georgia Tech, Utah State, San Diego State, Washington
12. Illinois, Florida, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech
13. Cornell, Siena, Murray State, Oakland
14. Akron, Wofford, UC Santa Barbara, Montana,
15.. Sam Houston St., Morgan St., North Texas, Vermont,
16. East Tennessee St., Winthrop, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Arkansas Pine Bluff

Bubble Breakdown:

Georgia Tech... The cutoff point team in my opinion at the moment. I feel they are completely safe now by reaching the semifinals of the ACC. Everyone above them is also currently safe as an at large (except possibly UTEP, who should win the CUSA to feel really safe tomorrow). The Yellow Jackets are in weird situation though, as they play N.C. State today, and even though they are in the ACC semifinals, a loss today would actually be a bad loss.

After Georgia Tech, I feel there are 6 spots left to be secured or up for grabs going into today, I currently feel that San Diego State, Washington, Illinois, Florida, Rhode Island, and Virginia Tech fill those spots.

San Diego State... yesterday's win vs. New Mexico was the biggest win of the day in my opinion, because it gave them a top notch neutral site win after all. Getting to the finals in the toughest mid major conference with no real blemishes should be enough for them. As long as they stay competitive today vs. UNLV, I think they are in. They don't even have to win I don't think.

Washington... again, another bubble team who took care of business and got to the finals of their respective conference tournament. It would be really hard for the committee to justify leaving an 11-7 Pac 10 team that made it to the finals at home on Sunday. They benefit from one of the weaker bubbles in recent memory, as their overall resume isn't too impressive though. I feel they are in for sure as long as California doesn't run them out of the building.

Illinois.... if San Diego State's win wasn't the biggest win of the day, then Illinois' over Wisconsin had to be. The Illini not only won, but they looked like a pretty damn good basketball team doing so. I was really skeptical of that RPI, and still am, but the reality is that they went 10-8 in the Big Ten, will at wost have reached the conference semifinals, and they have 5 wins against the Top 25, which is a lot more than any other team in this position. Again, I feel as if they are the third team, along with San Diego State and Washington, that will be in as long as they stay close and make things competitive today. If they don't they fall back into serious consideration for the last few spots.

Florida... the first of the last few teams in that can't improve their chances because they are done. I thought Florida would have been safe with just one win this week, which they did get against Auburn in the opening round, but the way things have unfolded, I'm not so sure anymore. I feel like an SEC team will actually get as one of the last few teams (between Florida, Ole Miss, and Mississippi St.), and Florida at the moment is the first in line in the pecking order. They really need Mississippi St to lose today though, because they lost to them, and it might be hard to justify putting a team in over a team who went 2 rounds further and beat them, as would be the case if State won today.

Rhode Island... for the moment they are in. They could still get in with a loss today, but things would have to unfold correctly for that. This is the team with the single most important game today in my opinion. They have a chance to knock off the A-10's best team and #1 seed in Temple, which would vault them into the championship game. They will be the biggest mover on the bubble today when the dust settles.

Virgina Tech... they are in the same situation as the Gators. They can't improve their position because they are done. They can only hope for fellow bubble teams to get knocked off. They really need for Rhode Island to lose today, along with Minnesota and Mississippi St. I feel like Florida is a notch above them right now, because Virginia Tech's loss yesterday was to a much worse team. They also need to be rooting for Utah State so these ever so precious last few spots don't diminish right in front of their face.

Teams On The Outside Looking In

Minnesota... they have a chance to make things really interesting today, by potentially running through Purdue on their way to the Big Ten final tomorrow. They aren't going to get in without a win today, but a win more than likely will put them in tomorrow's projected bracket.

Mississippi State... they also have a chance to play their way to the SEC finals today, and add that to finishing first in the SEC West. Their overall resume is really weak, and more reminiscent of a mid major though, so they will have to win today, not to get into the field, but to get into that serious consideration range. I feel they sit a spot behind Minnesota because I'm not sure a win would vault them to 'in' tomorrow, but rather right on the fence.

Seton Hall/South Florida.... these two Big East bubble teams, sit right in line behind the teams playing today, and can only hope both Minnesota and Mississippi State, along with Rhode Island lose today. It's really hard to decipher who would go before the other in these two team's cases. The bracketologist world seems split down the middle on these two teams. I personally think South Florida would go before Seton Hall, because that win at Georgetown is really by and far the best win between the two teams. It's probably going to be a long shot for either to make it though.

Everyone else really is a long shot right now. The following teams will be praying things fall their way somehow and a few of the members for whatever reason fall in love with something on their resume and vote them in:

Ole Miss... their loss yesterday knocked them out most certainly. The committee can look and say that they were bounced early because of a tough early matchup with a very good Tennessee team, and that this team had been midly hot down the stretch, although that's a reach. To have any shot Mississippi State has to lose today.

Kent State.... they will have to hope that winning the MAC by the margin of games that they did in the regular season will hold some merit, because getting embarrassed by a low seed in the opening round is really detrimental to any mid major's chances.

Wichita State... they do have 9 wins against the RPI top 100, but 4 losses to sub RPI 100 teams counters that. They weren't too good on the road either for a mid major, which the committee looks at pretty strongly.

These are the last few teams that I could see that even should have the TV on on Sunday, just in case you know?

Arizona State, UAB, Memphis, Dayton.

What to Watch: Tuesday

2010-03-09T07:48:00.012-05:00

Here is recap video of some of the best moments in Big East basketball tournament history, in honor of the Big East tournament getting underway tonight. Let the craziness continue!

Now, down to business, and what you need to be watching tonight. These games have the biggest implications on the tournament tonight:

Butler vs. Wright State - Horizon League Final (9:00 PM ET ESPN)

Yes, there are many bubble teams playing today, but how many of them get into the tournament depends on whether teams like Butler can lock up their conference tournament and and prevent spots from being stolen by teams with no shot at an at large - like Wright St. If Butler loses tonight, it's one less spots for the Illinois' and Washingtons of the college basketball world.

Providence vs. Seton Hall - Big East Opening Round Game (7:00 PM ET ESPNU)

Seton Hall needs this game if they have any shot at getting an at large bid. They lose, and it makes my job easier as one less team would remain on the bubble. They are really close to being in.

DePaul vs. South Florida - Big East Opening Round Game (12:00 PM ET ESPN)

South Florida is in the same boat as DePaul. They need this game, and may need to get to the quaterfinals to have a shot to get in. A loss here and they are toast.

Rhode Island/Dayton/Charlotte - Opening Round of the A10 (7:00 PM ET all)

All three of these teams, ranked in order of their respective place on the bubble outside the field, need to probably win 2 games this week. They all look to keep their at large hopes alive tonight by moving to the quaterfinals on Friday.

Troy vs. North Texas - Sun Belt Final (7:00 PM ET ESPN2)

The Sun Belt's automatic bid is up for grabs tonight between these two conference rivals. Both have nearly identical records, and the same conference record. The winner probably will get a 15th seed. This could turn out to be a great game, one made for those who are looking to bandwagon with a small school team.

IUPUI vs. Oakland - Summit League Finals (9:00 PM ET ESPN2)

Oakland is the favorite to secure the Summit League's automatic bid tonight, but IUPUI has been surging lately, looking to live the dream. Make sure you tune in for both of these small conference championship games tonight.

Outlook Going Into Tournament Week - Updated Bracket

2010-03-08T18:28:00.004-05:00

Some may consider this week the actual start of the true madness. Conference tournament week is just as crazy as the actual tournament can be. Conference tournament week is the week for fans who's team is a lock to hope they can run the table to jockey for better seeding; the week for the fans of the bubble teams to bite their nails at every foul call and every made shot during all their games all the while wondering if their team is in or out; it's the week for the fans of the schools who have disappointed during the regular season, hoping to see their team play Cinderella before the dance starts and capture the hearts of the nation. Yes folks, Conference Tournament is just as good as, if not better than the real deal.

I'm going to try and breakdown the outlook going into this crazy week, conference by conference, hopefully telling you where each team sits, whose in, whose out, and what each team needs to do.

Big XII

Kansas sits not only atop the Big XII, but probably atop the country right now. They should be the overall #1 seed in the tournament going into this week. They will be a 1 seed, regardless of what they do this week.... Kansas State's RPI is pretty at 6 right now, but the loss to Iowa State over the weekend hurts, as their is mad jockeying right now where they sit for position. They sit right on the verge of a 2 or 3 most likely. Take care of business and get to the finals, they should be a 2 seed. If they fall early, their fate most likely lies within the performance of the 2-4 Big East seeds... Baylor made the biggest move this weekend of anyone in the country in my opinion, with a big win over Texas. They were not on the radar of many bracketologists as top 4 seed as of late, but their RPI is extremely solid at 8, and their overall resume is tough to ignore. If they beat Kansas State in a potential semifinal Big XII game, they should be the second team off the board for the Big XII in my opinion.... Texas A&M is solidly in the tournament, and 4th in the Big XII pecking order right now. They probably sit in the 5-6 seed range. Getting to the finals though and knocking off Kansas along the way, would probably put this team into the coveted top 4 seeds....Texas and Missouri are both probably a toss up between the pecking order, with maybe a slight nod to Texas. Texas is sitting in that 6-7-8 range, while Missouri is probably around the 7-8 range. Both should be safe if they get bounced in their opener.... The last team in right now is Oklahoma State. They are currently sitting in the 8-9 range right now, and although it seems they are safe even with a loss, they would rather just take care of business against rival Oklahoma in the opening round.

BIG EAST

Syracuse should be the country's overall #2 seed and the second 1 seed going into tournament week. I can't see them losing their grip on a 1 seed this weekend unless they bounce early, and Kentucky, Duke and West Virginia/Ohio State all run the table. Even then it would be a debate.... West Virginia was the beneficiary of this weekend as they knocked off Nova' and seen Kansas State lose. They shouldn't be any less than the #5 overall seed entering this week, meaning they probably are the top 2 seed currently. It wouldn't be out of the question to see the chips fall into place for them to get a 1 seed either... Pittsburgh and Nova are interchangeable currently in my opinion, and who is the higher seed will be determined by their performances this week. Nova might have the slight edge currently, but both are sitting in the 2-3 seed range. Neither will be able to snag a 1 seed this week, although both could fall to a 4 seed with an early exit.... Georgetown was sitting with the big boys of the conference as of even last week, but a late season mini slide has them more likely in the 5-6 seed range. This team has some big wins, but too many losses. A good performance this week could put them potentially in the top 4 seed range.... There is quite a drop off in the conference after Georgetown, as the next two teams in the Big East pecking order are Louisville and Marquette. Marquette was sitting about two seeds higher than Louisville last week, but with Louisville knocking off the top ranked team in the country and Marquette losing, they both are probably in the 8-10 seed range. Marquette is probably more safe of the two teams if either of them were to lose, but Louisville would more than likely be in anyways without a win this week.... Notre Dame is ever so slightly behind Louisville and Marquette entering this week. The Irish are teetering with the edge of the bubble right now, as they are currently probably a 10-11 seed. They are in with a win, and sitting on the edge of their seats on Sunday without a win this week.... UConn was a team of much debate these last few weeks, but with 11 conference losses, they all but need to win the tournament to get in. A run to the final would make things interesting, but I still don't know if that would do it for them... Seton Hall and South Florida both probably need to make the final to even get some consideration.

ACC

Duke, fresh off their demolition of NC, is most likely the 4th 1 seed right now, their seed will be either a 2 or 1 depending on their performance this week, and probably Kentucky's, West Virginia, and Ohio State's as well.... Maryland is the team everyone is talking about, and they have been the fastest risers in the past two weeks. If you didn't know, Maryland had the same conference record as Duke, so that will hold some merit. Also being the hottest major conference team right now will hold some merit. At the moment they are probably in the 4-5 seed range, but if they continue to build off the past two or three weeks, and run through the ACC tourney, then I could actually see them getting as high as a 2 seed... It seems a down year though as the 3rd team in the ACC is most likely Clemson, who is most likely an 8-9 seed. Wake Forest is also probably a 9 seed. Clemson is definitely in regardless of whether they are 1nDone, Wake Forest is all but sure in even if they are 1nDone. Their seeding will depend on their performances as well as many other teams in the same position.... There are two interesting teams on the bubble for the ACC - they both are probably in right now, because of the weakness of the bubble teams, but if either loses their opening game, they will probably be done. Both need to win their opening game.... Everyone else will need to run the table.

BIG TEN

The top of the Big Ten is interesting. Ohio State, based on overall resume alone would probably be a 5 seed, but if the committee takes into account just their games with maybe the best player in the entire country, Evan Turner, they are instead anywhere from the 4th overall team in the country to the 8th. The other team is Purdue, who will have the opposite misfortune. Purdue's resume should grant them a 2 seed right now, but losing Robbie Hummell might be a mark for concern for the committee, although they haven't given them any reason to think so. I currently think Purdue is the 6th overall team right now, and Ohio State the 7th, giving them both 2 seeds. It would still even be hard for either to get a 1 seed in my mind, but both could end up as 2,3, or even 4 seed in my opinion... The next tier of teams is Michigan State and Wisconsin, both vying for a coveted top 4 seed. Wisconsin has a slight edge on Michigan State in terms of seeding position in my opinion at the moment, but that could change. Wisconsin is probably a 3-4 right now, with Michigan State sitting as a 4-5... Illinois is the team currently directly right on the bubble. As of the moment, they probably are the last team either out or in. So they will have to play their way in this week, rather than have teams play their way out for them... Minnesota isn't currently in the picture, but could be if they play their way to the championship game.

SEC

Kentucky doesn't have as strong a resume as the other teams vying for a 1 seed, but that is because the overall strength of the conference is down. They've done all they been asked to do though, that is win, and they should be in solid shape for a 1 as long as they win their opener.... Vanderbilt and Tennessee both make up the second tier in the SEC, as both are sitting in the 4-5 range. Vanderbilt is slightly falling, so they need at least 1 win this week to continue falling a line or 2. Both should end up there in the final bracket though.... Florida I think is in currently, and not on the actual bubble, but toeing that fine line. A winless week for them would leave them on the edge of their seats this week, probably on the out looking in. A win should put them in, and 2 definitely will.... Mississippi is the Illinois of the SEC. They are one of the last teams either way currently, squarely one of the most bubbly teams we have this week. They will have to play their way in... Mississippi State, will need 2 wins to get consideration this week as an at-large, but they might have to get 3 to be on the right side.

PAC 10

This conference has been an absolute joke this year. It's even a disgrace for me to write about them ahead of the A10 or even the Mountain West. So, that's what I'll leave this as - a joke. California will be in just because they are leading. They are probably a 7-10 seed team. The range is big, because I've never been part of a bracket where a power conference leader has been so bad, so I honestly don't know what they'll do with them... It's honestly possible that California could be the only Pac 10 team who makes it this year as well, which would be just embarrassing. Washington joins Mississippi and Illinois as the bubbliest of the "major conference" teams, and they will need to play their way in this week, which is definitely possible considering how weak the conference is. Washington is probably one of the first few teams out right now... Arizona State is more than likely out right now, but not too far out. They have a chance to play their way in with 2 wins, 1 might not just cut it, depending on how the rest of the bubble teams perform. Everyone else will have to steal a bid.

ATLANTIC 10

Let me first say that it has been a banner year for the Atlantic 10, as they have an opportunity to put the same amount of teams as the Big Ten and SEC this year. Temple will kick things off for them more than likely as a 3-5 seed. The high end of that range will be with a title this week, and the low end is if they bounce early. Xavier is the second A10 team in line, as they will probably be around a 5-7 seed. Again, the ranges are larger for these second tier conferences, because you never know if the committee will favor them, treat them equally, or hold something against them. Richmond, the third team in line will be a 6-9 seed, currently sitting as a 7 seed, and definitely in regardless... Rhode Island is on the outside of the bubble looking in, but has a serious chance to get in with strong play this week. Their loss this past weekend put them on the wrong side... Dayton is a low end bubble team that will need to win 2 being the 7th seed in the tournament, to have a chance to get in... Saint Louis is the 4th seed, but they will probably need to get the automatic berth if they want to dance, same goes for Charlotte, the 6th seed.

MOUNTAIN WEST

New Mexico has been a mainstay in the RPI Top 10 all year, and their seed will be one of the most intriguing of them all. They have some serious beef to get a top 2 seed, but I see them more as a 3 in the committee's eyes at the moment, and maybe even a 4. If they run the MW tournament, they definitely deserve a 2.... BYU is my surprise sleeper team for the actual tournament, and they probably are currently a 5-7 seed. A strong showing this week could have them as a 4-5, and as a mid major, you don't ever want to bounce out early. UNLV is sitting in the 9-10 range, but should win 1 if they want to kick back and relax on Sunday.... San Diego State has been benefiting from all these major conference bubble teams kicking the bucket each week, and they are actually probably in right now, backdooring their way in. They are a 12 seed currently, but will be playing in the NIT without a win, and it might even take 2.

REST OF THE COUTNRY

Butler should be the highest seed of the teams I didn't mention above. They should be about in the 4-6 range, most likely a 5.... Then should come Gonzaga. The Zags are maybe a line lower right now than Butler, sitting in the 5-7 range, as this is nothing new for this program... Northern Iowa out of the Missouri Valley already clinched with an auto berth, and will probably end up being a 7 or an 8 seed.... Old Dominion, plays tonight (Monday) for the CAA auto berth, in what might be the biggest game of Monday (or second biggest to Saint Mary's-Zaga). Old Dominion will be one of the last teams considered if they fall tonight to William and Mary, and a case could be made for them either way... Saint Mary's is in the same boat as they were last year. They are going to be one of the last teams considered as well if they don't pull the upset tonight against the hated Zags and take the WCC's auto berth. They are probably an 11-12 seed right now, but a loss puts them squarely on the bubble... Kent State will more than likely have to sew up the MAC on their own if they wish to get in. If they make it to the final and lose, they might have some beef especially if the bubble teams pull a clunker this week, but they probably will be NIT bound... Everyone else will have to win their respective tournaments to make the actual tournament starting next week.

Projecting the Field Update

2010-03-06T14:54:00.001-05:00

This is my first post for this year's season, 2010. I didn't have the time to get this up and running earlier in the year, although I would have loved too. That doesn't mean, I haven't been projecting and slotting teams for the past month or two though. Without further adieu, here's my latest (and first publicized) projection of the field and the entire s-curve (this is reflective of the teams games through Friday March, 5th.)

The S-Curve

1. Syracuse (Big East)
1. Kansas (Big XII)
1. Kentucky (SEC)
1. Duke (ACC)

2. Villanova (1)
2. Kansas State (2)
2. West Virginia (3)
2. Purdue (4)

3. Ohio State (Big Ten)
3. New Mexico (Mountain West)
3. Vanderbilt (5)
3. Pittsburgh (6)

4. Maryland (7)
4. Temple (A10)
4. Wisconsin (8)
4. Michigan State (9)

5. Baylor (10)
5. Tennessee (11)
5. Texas A&M (12)
5. BYU (13)

6. Georgetown (14)
6. Butler (Horizon)
6. Xavier (15)
6. Texas (16)

7. Gonzaga (WCC)
7. Richmond (17)
7. Clemson (18)
7. Florida State (19)

8. Missouri (20)
8. Marquette (21)
8. Northern Iowa (MVC)
8. Oklahoma State (22)

9. Louisville (23)
9. UTEP (CUSA)
9. UNLV (24)
9. Utah State (WAC)

10. California (PAC 10)

10. Wake Forest (25)
10. Florida (26)
10. Georgia Tech (27)

11. Notre Dame (28)
11. Old Dominion (CAA)
11. Rhode Island (29)
11. Virginia Tech (30)

12. St. Mary's (31)
12. UAB (32)
12. Kent State (MAC)
12. Mississippi (33)

13. Washington (34)
      Illinois
      Mississippi State
      San Diego State
      Connecticut
      Memphis
      Arizona State
      Dayton
      Charlotte
_____________________

13. Cornell (Ivy)
13. Siena (MAAC)
13. Wofford (Southern)

14. Murray State (Ohio Valley)
14. Oakland (Summit)
14. Weber State (Big Sky)
14. Sam Houston State (Southland)

15. UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
15. Coastal Carolina (Big South)
15. Morgan State (MEAC)
15. North Texas (Sun Belt)

16. Stony Brook (America East)
16. Quinnipiac (Northeast)
16. Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)
16. Lehigh (Patriot)
16. Jackson State (SWAC)